Renzi ready to defy Brussels and bail out Italy’s troubled banks - FT.com#axzz4DQj4oYkn

While the FUD of project fear and a few cases of buyers-redemption has rattled around in the UK press for a week, the news is rolling to the adjustment or otherwise that Eruope will make in the face of the EU. Interesting time!

Renzi ready to defy Brussels and bail out Italy’s troubled banks - FT.com#axzz4DQj4oYkn

"The threat has raised alarm among Europe’s regulators, who fear such a brazen intervention would devastate the credibility of the union’s newly implemented banking rule book during its first real test. In the race to find workable solutions, Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief, has laid out options for Rome to address its banking problems without breaking the bail-in principles of Europe’s banking union.  

Italy is the eurozone’s biggest vulnerability following the shock outcome of the UK vote to leave the EU, with bank stocks plunging by a third. Concerns are building before the outcome of bank stress test results due this month and a constitutional referendum in Italy in early October, on which Mr Renzi has wagered his job. Citi has described the referendum as “probably the single biggest risk on the European political landscape this year outside the UK”.







http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc4028fa-411f-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html#axzz4DQj4oYkn

"But Mr Juppé said he did not foresee any concrete action from the 27 remaining EU leaders this year, especially with elections in France and Germany next year. Paralysis, he said, risks emboldening the anti-EU populist parties."

Extend and pretend - Italian banks lending to those struggling to repay

Almost like a reverse Ponzi scheme, how long will Italy tolerate all the systemic issues that they and the EU are clinging on with their fingernails!?

https://www.ft.com/content/d5db1afa-bae1-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

Brexit cant happen quick enough when you think the EU is getting swamped with different issues in the different countries and the challenge is each country needs to do its won thing with all the moral hazard involved. If and when they dont they will say it was someone elses problem and the EU and Euro will take the hit. Too complex!

https://www.ft.com/content/cedfc28c-b884-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

" But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration. It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned with the status quo. Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008. Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent. Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent of the euro with a near-depression. And indeed some economists believe the euro has been disastrous for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden. "

The renminbi struggles to be global, the Euro struggles to be european!

https://www.ft.com/content/e480fd92-bc6a-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

The fear is that an uncontrolled depreciation of the renminbi would spark turmoil in the broader economy and, in an extreme scenario, even lead to political instability.


It will be interesting to watch the renminbi and the euro on the road to 2020!

The Euro and Italy, or should I say German doubts! (see comments section too!)
https://www.ft.com/content/a7b94c72-be2a-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

"The next Italian prime minister will need to explain to the next German chancellor, presumably Angela Merkel, that her choice will not be between a political union or no political union, but between a political union or Italy’s withdrawal from the euro.

The latter would imply the biggest default in history. The German banking system would be in danger of collapsing, and Europe’s biggest economy would lose all the competitiveness gains so painstakingly accumulated over the past 15 years."

Did someone mention Italy?

Euro Contagion..........
How does the world of politics and finance get back under control.

Is there too much inter dependence, are too many implicated in this for the right decision to be found and made, is integration the reverse of "flexible, agile, common sense self interested drivers forming responsibility for a wider world" ie dont lock in - Innovate!:

http://nickhorslen.blogspot.com/search?q=italy

http://nickhorslen.blogspot.com/search?q=P.I.G.S

I ponder on the fact that in the UK we have had parliament, the banks and now the press NoW/Newscorp hit below the water line simply because of institutional thinking preventing them being hit earlier above the water line ie before things got real serious and when something could have been done about it, ie force pain on JUST those responsible within!

Next?! : Supermarkets, Football clubs, Universities, Pensions, umm??

As well as the Euro crisis and the middle east Spring, what else is going to pile in to make the whole pack of card collapse. Africa, South America, China, etc

What i do suspect is, that the strength of markets like the UK and in particular property, commerical property, is going to be taken down further by the banks as their exposure else where allows them to pass the pain on to others in widing in risk further. That will impact business, retail and investors small and large, pension schemes and private owners. Yes we are all implocates.

Europe, the EU, everything changes and nothing changes

https://www.ft.com/content/00ad3640-9eea-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5

"..........
Each side has allies in an old European struggle that predates the euro. One senior policymaker describes it as a proto-theological battle between the “Calvinist” north led by Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, and a “Catholic” south of France, Italy and Spain. In any grand bargain, Mr Macron will have to persuade the Calvinists they will not be on the hook for the profligacy of other countries in a reinforced eurozone.
 Ms Merkel will need to reassure the Catholics that the age of austerity will not return should another crisis hit. There is also an awkward squad of countries outside the euro that includes Sweden, Poland and Hungary.
 Part of the reform agenda will require changes to EU law that must be discussed by all 28 members including the UK, giving a say to capitals that have clashed with Brussels, such as Budapest and Warsaw.
...."

Big days: 9th of October 2011 from 17th Sept 2007

So it was just hours and not days for the end of an italian era.
We thought the banks were an issue, we thought Greece was an issue, now with Italy outed what is next in Euro land and beyond?

I stumbled upon a note in my note book back in September 2007 where i wrote a comment picked up after an invite to watch England Play at wembley being wined and dined at the Corinthian club at wembley, before during and after one of their first matches at the new stadium. The guys talking worked for a london bank, seemed like essex boy style traders, certainly not short of a few bob!

Over hearing some comments that id heard elsewhere, cant remember where, it appeared that "Sept 18th 2007 will be a key day for the UK and world banks. Lets see where things are by 2008?" which in hind sight seems spooky.

For example found this via google "18th september 2007 bank":
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20070918.htm
I must wordle that!

Things were known then by those with power and money, things are known now in November 2011, lets see what 2012 brings?

Has this really been dragging on for 4 years. recessions are usually a year or two, sustaining this takes us to a new place, a place where no one has been before, does anyone on high have the experience to deal with this?

Floating currency - a good read!

Imagine being Italy, looking at Greece and then Germany and then saying: why are we here, who set our currency value for us in this very Italian situation?

https://www.ft.com/content/c8ebe416-914f-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923

Merkel suffers humiliating election defeat on home turf — FT.com

The long brewing politics in Europe, from Greece to Spain, Italy to Ireland, France to Germany is what made many brits vote to get out of the EU. Europe is a great place but each country has to be accountable for itself and the proxy of a few the EU muddles the view too much for too many. If the emergence of forces unfit for Britain took further control staying is would be a real danger. Britain knows what its doing when its allows to get on with its own business. The same is true for all other countries. 2016 is an inflection point for polical nonsense in Europe and hopefully will see core issues of their economies, their unemployment especial of youth unemployment and their roles in world trade come into clear focus for all countries.

Merkel suffers humiliating election defeat on home turf — FT.com




https://www.ft.com/content/bafb4868-728e-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35




both worth a read and revisit in 2020! #Brexit

Spain braces itself for a crisis made in Germany

Does the good intentions of neighbours eventually lead to a dependency that doesnt endure over the long term. With cycle after cycle the eventual pain comes home. Where is home for those big and small, at the centre or at the periphery, in the anglosaxon or latin tradition!?
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Spain braces itself for a crisis made in Germany
Is it politics, or economics of societorial I wonder?

The mention of P.I.G.S over a year ago has loomed large in blogs and twitter, mine included. Contagion beyond Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, seems, as Ive posted before its Italy next:
FT.com / Markets - Debt contagion fears weigh on investor sentiment

This little PIGGY went to market, this little piggy stayed at home, this little piggy went we we we all the way home!

Freedom to go it alone - avoid dependency!

From my tweets:

nick_horslen nick_horslen

FT: “vicious circle between the conditions of public finances and those of banks”+ house of cards;bank and currency integration v innovation

17 seconds ago Favorite Reply Delete

ick_horslen nick_horslen

Regulation and sovereign debt: a vicious circle? FT Money Supply http://t.co/CdU4pje

Re : Italy and the rest below!

Intergenerational social mobility: a Europe wide picture – 3RD INTERNATIONAL ESS CONFERENCE

Interesting!




Social mobility
Low in Italy & Hungary
High in Slovenia, Estonia, & UK




Intergenerational social mobility: a Europe wide picture – 3RD INTERNATIONAL ESS CONFERENCE

Brexit negotiators identify UK’s trump cards London is confident it has a strong hand — the question is how to use it

2017 will be very interesting year in terms of leverage and negotiations, the french and german elections that is!

https://www.ft.com/content/44ad7fba-b48c-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

not to mention the attitudes of Sweden and Poland vs Italy and Greece.

How Donald Trump has changed the world - FT.com

Clinton will win BUT Is it ordinary people backing him or is it the richer end of the middle classes if not the ultra rich elite?

How Donald Trump has changed the world - FT.com#axzz48FEFh7dY







Themes yes, but what has brought this on? Is it a great trend or was it that no half competent republican stepped forwards knowing they couldn't win, thus left a vacuum for a Trump, Farage, Le Pen, Salmon or Sturgeon to be sucked in. (USA, UK, FR, Scotland, etc). Only time will tell but watching the Ukraine, Austria, Italy, Estonia, Norway and Spain will be interesting in the run up to 2020 regardless of the further inflection from Brexit!




Trump



What are those ideas? I would highlight five. First, a rejection of globalisation and free trade. This, of course, is a theme that Mr Trump shares with Bernie Sanders on the left of the Democratic party. Its influence can already be seen in the way in which Mrs Clinton has backed away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that she once championed.




The second theme is nationalism, epitomised by Mr Trump’s slogan of “America First”. In Europe, nationalism implies a rejection of the EU. But the global implications of American nationalism are much more serious since the US underpins the whole international security system and issues the world’s reserve currency, the dollar.




A third idea is the embrace of the notion of a “clash of civilisations” between the west and Islam. Even as President George W Bush launched a “war on terror” in 2001, he rejected the idea that the US is at war with Islam itself. Mr Trump, with his talk of temporarily banning all Muslims from entering the US, has essentially embraced the idea of inevitable conflict between the west and the Islamic world.




A fourth theme is a relentless assault on the “elite”, including Washington, Wall Street and the universities. A populist distrust of elites has been a perennial theme in US politics for decades, if not centuries. But growing inequality, immigration and the financial crisis have driven anti-elite rhetoric to new levels. As a New York billionaire, Mr Trump is an unlikely tribune of the common man. But he has played the card effectively during the campaign.


A fifth and related trend is the denunciation of the mainstream media as untrustworthy and an embrace of alternative, conspiratorial narratives that are flourishing on the internet. Mr Trump, for example, has promoted the baseless idea that President Barack Obama was not born in the US. This embrace of conspiracy theories is pernicious for democracy, which requires some agreement on basic facts as the foundation for debate.




Variants of these five trends are also flourishing on the far right in Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are in the hands of parties that preach a Trumpian mix of nationalism, fear of Islam, distrust of the “liberal” media and anti-globalism. In France, Mr Le Pen’s daughter, Marine, is likely to make it to the final round of the presidential election in 2017.








How Donald Trump has changed the world - FT.com#axzz48FEFh7dY

Pretend and extend, Greece and Italy et al

The cliff that everyone talks about for the UK Brexit seems like little more than a curb when both sides of the long running EU IMF debacle continues.

It will be interesting to see if this gets resolved pre or post Brexit or if it is allowed to explode at a timely point in relation to Brexit.

I hope for the Greeks but also EU and UK that it all gets sorted ok after years of posts way back!

https://www.ft.com/content/6a05f1ee-ed52-11e6-930f-061b01e23655

with the EU and IMF difference shown here:

https://www.ft.com/content/63d8b354-ed5e-11e6-930f-061b01e23655

With the side note from Draghi and Carney:

https://www.ft.com/content/e04582b0-ed67-11e6-ba01-119a44939bb6

Spain from boom to bust and back again? maybe!

A good read and view of comparative data and charts from spain, germany, france, uk and italy!

https://www.ft.com/content/254bb8a8-1940-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

"Some believe the changes go even deeper. Sandra Gómez, a 31-year-old Socialist who became deputy mayor of Valencia two years ago, argues that her generation has learnt a bitter lesson. Too young to carry any blame for the bubble, but not young enough to escape the bust, young Spaniards have been the big losers of the lost decade.

“There is more awareness of how difficult it is to find work if you are not prepared. Everyone knows that you have to study, that you have to train and that you have to work hard. And that you must never choose the easy path,” says Ms Gómez. “I think my generation, the one that lived through all of this, we will not make the same mistakes.”"

Italy and the EU!

Nothing new here!

https://www.ft.com/content/91443ffe-028d-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

Perfect storms, Global, Europe, UK....

At a global level the rise and/or meltdown of China and South America is going to be interesting for the next few years. In Europe the issues around Spain and Italy after Ireland and Greece persist and with Oil heading to $20 or maybe $10 and the chill of the global economy (or more transparency) means Europe aint done yet.




And then there is a cocktail of issues for the UK left and right, from Europe to Growth, Inflation and Interest rates, Devolution (Scottish economy, oil, education, health, progress) to Northern powerhouses. London Mayor and retiring PM, etc etc




Jeremy Corbyn’s strategist Seumas Milne in the eye of Labour storm - FT.com




Its difficult to read right now but the truth is out there. Will it break through first?

Right, nationalist, populist - signifying the follows does not stop the cause

The cause of the EU problems is itself and the fact that it demonstrates little ability to change things for people. It might be a certain group that complain but the evidence of change for the youth is in this link https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/europe-political-milestones-austria-italy-far-right the evidence of it solving work, cost, social and competitive problems is no where to be seen.

Accountability and transparency along with the moral hazard of elected govt is the only way to solve the problem, not building a cosy wall around a captive market. In the long term it will just fester in a cage.

Its good to signify things differently as too many others chose their signifiers with good intent but with poor outcomes!

Greece, Euro and IMF?

I wonder what has really been going on for the last 6 months, when amateurs like me have spoken of the PIGS for 2yrs and predicted whats likely and those more professional and expert have or must have known more.

Do france and germany know more than we, yes, have they allowed for the smoke screens of announcements over the last two months only to find the Greek PM throw himself on his sword, or has he just had enough.

Whats next?

The unthinkable has been thought in recent weeks about Greece leaving the Euro, today the unspokable has been spoken with politcal leaders saying greece decides if its in or out else there is no bail out, guess what they will choose. When will the undoable be done?

Perhaps this whole charade has been to make the undoable doable, but are they mitigating or minimizing impact.

Look beyond today and then Italy just simply becomes a credibility issue, jokers in charge. People expect more, perhaps they fool themselves. The world needs to be made simpler not more complex these people are only people!

Painful choices still hang over Greece - FT.com#axzz4AnJvmypQ#axzz4AnJvmypQ

Contagion post Greek, Irish bail outs seems to have been averted for Portugal, Spain and Italy, but has it and at who's expense?







Ive no idea how this impacts on the Brexit issue and the credibility of the EU and Euro but it certainly looks like a matter of time before some camp or other comes clean!


"Meanwhile, the IMF has to decide on its own position. It has now thrown down the gauntlet to the eurozone. Germany wants the IMF in, but not the IMF’s demands on debt. So Berlin must choose. If the IMF does not get the concessions it seeks, it is honour bound to withdraw from the Greek mess. It should do so. It might be unable to save Greece. But it can at least save itself."




Painful choices still hang over Greece - FT.com#axzz4AnJvmypQ#axzz4AnJvmypQ