Thursday, May 25, 2017

Do markets react to information, do voters respond to poll predictions OR...

with the learning from the last election and polling debacle lead to a more accurate prediction, we will see:

2015 vs 20yrs before, 2017 vs 2015, has the trend continued?

Project fear V2.0 or not project fear: reality of forecasts and assumptions!


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Merkel and Macron - EU, two countries or more!?

If Le Pen gets in then no one said they didnt try and delay and delay....

"Since the crises, these cost divergences have ceased to grow, yet not reversed. This means that if domestic demand in the French or Italian economies were to be strong enough to eliminate that part of unemployment due to deficient demand, their current accounts would go into significant deficit. If they are also to run balanced fiscal positions, their private sectors must also run substantial financial deficits (excesses of spending over income). But the French and Italian private sectors have run persistent surpluses, even at low interest rates. Thus substantial fiscal tightening is likely to cause significant domestic slowdowns. Germany’s proposed solution to divergences of competitiveness is for everybody to follow its own model. It has succeeded: in 2016, all members of the eurozone, bar France, ran a current account surplus. The eurozone's current account shifted from a deficit of 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008 to a surplus of 3.4 per cent in 2016. If France is driven into prolonged competitive deflation, Marine Le Pen might become president next time. Mr Macron must ask Angela Merkel whether the German chancellor is willing to risk this. Reform in France is essential. So is development of risk-sharing institutions. But the eurozone also needs a big jump in relative German wages. Will that happen? I fear not."

Election 2017 UK Polling

This is going to be an interesting month to watch the data, analysis and narrative not to mention expectations, excitement or whatever:

some good data journalism in here

looking for some good visualisations to come!


Monday, May 15, 2017

Just like with Hollande some years ago, hopes of reform are high in France and EU!

Lets revisit the excitement in 2022 shall we?!

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Brexit get out of jail free card!

Its good that the UK public will be asking how can we help the EU countries with our £100Bn donation, I know it would go a long way in the developing world as it would equate to 10years of DFID ODA funding which save millions of lives.

There is a lot of information out there about how the French and German money is spent by the EU and they are not likely to be paying more in future so I guess they will be asking the same questions as us.

I know the Dutch, Spanish and Scandinavian countries will, as they are the ones likely to pick up most of the bill in the future when there are only 27 countries paying in.

A good read> also> I think the transparency will be growing in the coming years> #accountability #Budget4Results

Saturday, April 29, 2017


"“If you find yourself criticizing other people, you’re probably doing it out of Resistance. When we see others beginning to live their authentic selves, it drives us crazy if we have not lived out our own. Individuals who are realized in their own lives almost never criticize others. If they speak at all, it is to offer encouragement. Watch yourself. Of all the manifestations of Resistance, most only harm ourselves. Criticism and cruelty harm others as well.”
— Steven Pressfield, War of Art"

yanis varoufakis brexit advice theresa may avoid negotiating

This aligns with much that I have posted in the last 10 yrs about Greece and the EU.


Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Jimmy Wales new venture is going to be one to watch and revisit!

Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales to set up global news website

‘Wikitribune’ to use paid and citizen journalists in venture to combat fake news

Monday, April 24, 2017

AI and drones igniting the ideas of flying cars, again!

Lots of people posting this:

"Its getting a lot of attention and Im sure it is the route to a new form of transport but having flown small aircraft myself, I can say without a rudder and trim not to mention ailerons it will not make for a comfortable journey for a person in anything other than the simplest most perfect weather conditions. If it is fully autonomous with AI control then it might just get beyond a niche mkt (deliveries) towards mass adoption but its not a car. Without wheels or an engine it cant taxi even off the runway. They haven't carried the weight of a human not even a pilot. So seeing it do more than be a drone for now is difficult. The human factors of flying are real critical and that means, weather, visibility, navigation, radio comms, heating, locations for take off and landing, height restrictions ie above 500 feet, emergency landing procedures (capabilities) are all little details to be factored in."

This will make you smile:

Ingenuity and engineering, the mother of invention:

The road or should I say the sky is the limit, except flying is and has to be safe. Its safer than driving and that because less people can fly and pilots pass more than just a road test!

AI, Jobs and the artisan human

Lots of talk about AI and job losses, which will come. However the evolutionary shift will not be a straight switch or replacement but a transition for both technology and humans. If AI and robots deliver they will do the economy and work more efficiently and effectively, growing GDP ww massively. People will live off of that improvement and wealth and become what they always were, humans!

The artisan in literature, art, design, science and learning won't go away.

Simple things will be valued even more, simple is usually not so simple thats the beauty of what people alone can do>

Friday, April 21, 2017

The artisan and the gig economy, symbiotic old and new!

As the management and entrepreneurial mantra goes:

The founder startup entrpreneur starts as the artisan (knows whats what has the skill) turns in to the hero (employs and excites people) if they are not careful they become the pain in the arse (by not delegating or delegating while looking over the shoulders and interfering) but if they are good they quickly become the strategic leader (employing the right people, empowering and letting go to focus on the big challenges ahead, the future, the step change). Simples!

But so many cant do it!

General election2017: Everyone second guessing and cautioning for different reasons

"Meanwhile some moderate Labour MPs are also adopting the desperate tactic of insisting that Mrs May is unbeatable, hoping to reassure voters they can vote for a competent local MP without any risk of Mr Corbyn becoming prime minister. John Woodcock, MP for Barrow, wrote in the North West Evening Mail: “In the unlikely event Mr Corbyn was in a position to try to form a government (and let’s face it, we are 20 points behind in the polls under his leadership, it is not going to happen) I would refuse to endorse him as prime minister in any parliamentary vote that would follow.” Another Labour MP said that many of his colleagues were telling voters on the doorstep not to worry about the risk of Mr Corbyn winning the election. Another said: “We simply try not to talk about him at all.” And all the while, the Conservatives are drawing up a target list of more than 70 Labour seats where the sitting MP has a majority of less than 7,000."


Labour MP's wanting to win their seat but not have their party win to ensure the voters vote for them and not worry that they might bring in chaos!

The torys saying they might not win so everyone get voting for us.

Libs seeing their opportunity.

The SNP can top last time.

The opposition have to fight themselves.

As unpredictable as ever but is FUD reigns it will be a landslide.

If labour lose they lose corbyn, if corbyn wins they have the mess to rule and will lose within 5 years.

One day we might get back to normal.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Bezos and amazon 20 years in!

A short or long 20 years, the model for retailers is the one to watch still but with Jack Ma and Alibaba and Satya Nadella and Microsoft Azure Bezos has plenty to keep a careful eye on for the next 20 years

AWS will have to fight to keep up with Azure and every retailer in the world will want to see AWS go away. Get focused MSFT! #Azure

1997 seems so far away now, I was there warning europe to wake up to the web we have our players but for search, retail and social media the big boys are all american!

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

June 8th and George Osborne to quit as an MP.

With a general election on June 8th 2017, not surprisingly with the need for a mandate to negotiate and the time to do the deal and let it bed in, it clear others are planning for the next era beyond 2022!

Monday, April 10, 2017

NTD's, SCI, Malaria and TB

Some interesting pronouncements for Parliament, ie the House of Lords, makes a good read!

The Pound Sterling

We will see!


Sterling’s depreciation made it less attractive in the short run, said one reserve manager from Asia, but “in the long run, the UK economy is expected to recover with economic fundamentals remaining steady”.


SpaceX boosts jobs!

All systems go at SpaceX Add that to overtaking GM and Ford for Tesla in Mkt.Cap and Hyperloop going to the next stage of testing, then that is trains, planes (rockets) and automobiles covered for the next century, along with a few hundred jobs of the future

Next its the human brain that go into these things that get the boost #NeuralLace . Much more than just internet via your mobile or laptop with a touch of AI and caffeine or mind enhancing drugs thrown in.

Friday, April 07, 2017

Spain from boom to bust and back again? maybe!

A good read and view of comparative data and charts from spain, germany, france, uk and italy!

"Some believe the changes go even deeper. Sandra Gómez, a 31-year-old Socialist who became deputy mayor of Valencia two years ago, argues that her generation has learnt a bitter lesson. Too young to carry any blame for the bubble, but not young enough to escape the bust, young Spaniards have been the big losers of the lost decade.

“There is more awareness of how difficult it is to find work if you are not prepared. Everyone knows that you have to study, that you have to train and that you have to work hard. And that you must never choose the easy path,” says Ms Gómez. “I think my generation, the one that lived through all of this, we will not make the same mistakes.”"

Norway’s $910bn oil fund, which on average owns 1.3 per cent of every listed company in the world

An interesting view on the exec team and future incentives!

Monday, April 03, 2017

Tesla in 2017 30% mkt cap grown in q1!

After years of blogginf about Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla and Hyperloop and now even more so on the AI and existential issues, it starting to look like Tesla will have their mainstream break through this year will a lower cost mass market model. Good Luck to them, can wait to revisit these posts in 2020 and 2030!

Going mainstream, and not just as the low emission leader!! 

"Tesla’s shares stood at $278.30 at Friday’s market close, up 30 per cent from the beginning of the year."

Thursday, March 30, 2017

The driver for ridiculous left and right politics.

The lack of focus and sound judgement and decisions is driving people in other countries towards unrealistic possibilities which will permeate the EU if not take it over. The risk of far right influence on the EU long term or far left, is exactly why getting out now is going to prove crucial. Lets revisit this in 10 and 20yrs time.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Another day in history 29/03/2017!

No club is so great that members cannot chose to leave. How much harder in the future!

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Neural Lace

Stepping the human brain up a gear to keep up with future AI!

ECB & Transparency International

Gets interesting when transparency Intl gets involved with the ECB and EU issues!

Monday, March 27, 2017

Ubers business looking driverless

Uber on the backfoot again after yet another incedent. They are suffering on so many levels, while growing, that its more than just a tech issues for them now!

Success and attention brings this focus, ask MSFT, Facebook and Google.

Driverless cars are going to face many metaphorical road crashs before more people think its anything other than a fad. Give it another 10 yrs at least then who knows! 2027 look back to here!

Venture capital and/or Philanthropy!

Silicon valley in going after some of the human and social issues is unrolling a carpet for new narratives about appropriate focus, investment and innovations:

While this is always to be expected in the world of the "battle of discourse(s)" it illustrates a few issues which include the subtlety of market failure where the question of who in silicon valley will invest in poverty eradication "theres no money in it" verse life extensions where plenty of rich people, not ultra rich but north of the brandt line rich people will buy a little more!

Ultimately the case is not as suggested in that and dealing with disease is in everyones interest, even TB now has some focus even though its a disease mainly of the poor world, fortunately london and the UK having to step up to the mark and it is:

and it needs to go further faster:

Ultimately its the progress in science and technology that has aided the full improvement of humanity but the focus on the developing world and poorest people can easily get lost in the priories and excitement. for that not to happen people need more understanding of the realities everywhere:

Market failures, places where need exist but there is no monetary incentive to solve!

Friday, March 24, 2017

Safari life of corporate finance and M&A!

Having just got back from a safari and seen these animals up close in their own environment, this artical made a good read especially as it features Paul Polman and true 21st century leader:

And as cute and cuddly as it is the true picture is that if you are living on investors money you have to be very careful with it, which makes change tricky but in the long term if you under promise and over deliver and not the other way round you might just lead real change.

The other side of this is that those not dependent on others money, is the small business and community business owner and worker, then being able to survive the nonsense of the big boys is even more of a challenge. A bit like observing the impala's and especially the dung beetles on safari, they deliver so much into the every recycling economy.

These animal in the game reserves live and act with such dignity, the ecosystem works because of them and inspite of us!

Countries telling the EU: Central command and control truth flowing out at last.

Any decent business mind and people who care about community know that if only they had been smart enough to say what everyone knew 5 years ago, It should have read:

  "The longstanding ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview that the EU needed flexibility ..... to avoid the transfer of more powers from national capitals to Brussels. In an interview ..... Mr Schäuble denied that he was disappointed with the fading of European federalist ideas, which the 74-year-old has espoused for decades and are enshrined in the EU’s commitment to “ever closer union” adopted in 1983." instead of adding the padding above as per the "....." deletions!

 Then they would have been able to avoid the further padding (see article for the padding instead) of "....." today:

 " In all or in most European states there are no broad majorities to give additional shares of national sovereignty to Brussels. “So we have to improve . . . our intergovernmental methods......." 

Small is beautiful, heavy weights at the centre of anything is a disaster for all, good business people and communities knows that too well!

Gibralter and Scotland

Another angle to watch:

Both in terms of original voter intentions as well as longer term outcomes and alignments.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Italy and the EU!

Nothing new here!

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

revisit in 2027

I will put a note in the diary to re read this and take a careful look at London, Paris and Frankfurt and the rest.

" The big players
Pro: Could benefit from banks choosing to be close to the ECB
Con: Lacks the flair of Paris

Pro: Much the most aggressive campaign, offers cultural attractions
Con: May struggle with France’s reputation for hostility towards finance

Pro: Similar legal system to UK, also shares language and timezone
Con: Lack of infrastructure and regulatory capacity     "

UK productivity - margin or jobs!!??

Interesting take on the on going confusion of UK productivity!

By this measure any business having to tighten its belt due to austerity, cuts and consumers holding back ie price pressures from supply:demand, means that without cutting headcount then productivity falls, to me thats a good thing, we need our staff and are prepared to pay the price to keep jobs!!

Monday, March 20, 2017

EU and the Euro - plenty of idea's very little action!

“Full-blown monetary union demands full-blown political union — I’m not sure that’s realistic,” Mr Van Overtveldt says. “But we can make a valuable positive contribution by developing a second-best solution, and we can do that better than we have done so far.”

Steam rolling and or sweeping things under the carpet looked like the tactics of the past, allowing everyone to be lured in and implicated in a process they thought would never need a reverse gear.
Tragic and dangerous if not resolved soon!

It was often said that the Euro would be a political trap that could even lead to war if it wrecks one or two of the key economies in the EU without the people being able to control it!

Brexit deal not an issue

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think

The EU should not seek to earn a quick buck, nor the UK to dodge direct costs

"Every political process is prone to accidents. But I am really struggling to identify a single insurmountable obstacle to a deal. My advice, especially for angry Remain supporters, is to take a deep breath, accept that Brexit will happen and focus on how to reconnect with the EU after Brexit. There is much to play for."

Friday, March 17, 2017

To GDP or not to GDP, that is the question.

Interesting piece related to a new book of course, well why not, world always needs another book to two!

"For Greenspan, the point was that one must not confuse GDP with welfare, something that has increasingly occurred. But for sceptics such as Lorenzo Fioramonti, a professor of political economy at the University of Pretoria, this kind of mild criticism only scratches the surface. In The World After GDP, he argues that the measure is not only a distorted mirror in which to view our increasingly complex economies, but also an impediment to building better societies."

Not forgetting the famous Robert Kennedy speech which you can search for on my blog from a previous post!

It is said that Einstein kept a sign in his office that read, "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."

Anywhere and Somewhere world views!

I come at this from a different angle but I understand the points he makes.

I like the idea about how many octaves up and down does your politics allow you to hear!

Thursday, March 02, 2017

EU waking up to common sense

Too late for Junker, too late for ordinary people, but better late than never!

You just wonder at how these echo chambers work, how they design their narrative to fit their world view: Hardtalk!


Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Women and girls in science, for the developed and developing world

Some useful resources on gender equality and gender opportunity as well as the importance of women and girls in STEM - science, tech, eng and math.


Paul Polman - sustainability is everything

He does a good job leading the pack, wonder if the pack are after him, as Ive blogged before he's the one to watch IMHO

Nothings new under the sun!

Times now, times past!

Can you put a date and a name to this quote: 

"........... "We can succeed only by concert. It is not 'can any of us imagine better?' but, 'can we all do better?' The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, act anew."........... "

The nepotism and narcissism is what makes us and breaks us yet again:

#Truth #FakeNews #SocialMedia #2017

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Fly me to the moon and soon! SpaceX Feb2017

Elon Musk and SpaceX just pushing the bar all the time and at surprising speed!

Tesla and his solar business not to mention hyperloop just keeps me wondering how far he can go and how he didges any of the obvious bullets that futurologist and ultrpreneurs face!

Marks in the sand of time. 2016, 2017 Europe, the UK and EU

This is a good reference point to revisit every decade on the road to 2050:


and white paper: