Saturday, December 10, 2016

Nokia Microsoft

Takes me back to all those earlier posts of mine on the subject!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nokia-ceo-ended-his-speech-saying-we-didnt-do-anything-rahul-gupta?trk=hp-feed-article-title-like

did nothing wrong very different to doing something right!


Baidu tieba - a Chinese view translated on the fly by google, makes you think!

Have to find time in 2017 to follow http://tieba.baidu.com/

Friday, December 09, 2016

Memo on Brexit - one for the record I suppose!

David Davis to the city Dec 2016 https://www.ft.com/content/56211190-bd5f-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

Japan and Puerto rico and longevity and old age, the double edged sword!

Good article to read to think how and why people live longer in different countries, and what that means for the society and the economy as well as the individual

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-is-the-country-with-the-most-centenarians-per-capita

Thursday, December 08, 2016

School in the cloud 2016

Posted on this stuff many times and now with MOOC's and AI its going to new levels IMHO.

Just to recap:

http://www.ted.com/talks/sugata_mitra_shows_how_kids_teach_themselves ......2007

http://www.ted.com/talks/sugata_mitra_build_a_school_in_the_cloud ............2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFdqvCL2W2k ...............following on in 2014

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jun/07/sugata-mitra-professor-school-in-cloud .............and 2016...............just for the record at this stage of the journey!

Microsoft is back!

With Azure it sure feels like it!

http://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-has-reclaimed-its-birthright-windows-10-to-overtake-windows-7-within-a-year/

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Right, nationalist, populist - signifying the follows does not stop the cause

The cause of the EU problems is itself and the fact that it demonstrates little ability to change things for people. It might be a certain group that complain but the evidence of change for the youth is in this link https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/europe-political-milestones-austria-italy-far-right the evidence of it solving work, cost, social and competitive problems is no where to be seen.

Accountability and transparency along with the moral hazard of elected govt is the only way to solve the problem, not building a cosy wall around a captive market. In the long term it will just fester in a cage.

Its good to signify things differently as too many others chose their signifiers with good intent but with poor outcomes!

AI deep learning in retail thanks to Amazon

https://www.ft.com/content/88399c00-bb03-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

Amazon to launch checkout-free offline grocery store

Online retailer introduces ‘Just Walk Out’ tech for first physical supermarket

Online retailer Amazon is looking to eliminate the checkout in real-world supermarkets with the opening of its first physical grocery store early next year.
Its initial Amazon Go store will feature “Just Walk Out” technology that allows customers to take items from the shelves and walk out, without ever standing in a queue for a till.
The company said the store would use the same technology as driverless cars, employing sensors, computer vision and deep learning to determine which products a shopper had placed in their bag.

I wonder what the unintended consequences of this will be in terms of retailer and consumer let alone shop lifters behaviours! We will see!!

Monday, December 05, 2016

Extend and pretend - Italian banks lending to those struggling to repay

Almost like a reverse Ponzi scheme, how long will Italy tolerate all the systemic issues that they and the EU are clinging on with their fingernails!?

https://www.ft.com/content/d5db1afa-bae1-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

Brexit cant happen quick enough when you think the EU is getting swamped with different issues in the different countries and the challenge is each country needs to do its won thing with all the moral hazard involved. If and when they dont they will say it was someone elses problem and the EU and Euro will take the hit. Too complex!

https://www.ft.com/content/cedfc28c-b884-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration. It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned with the status quo. Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008. Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent. Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent of the euro with a near-depression. And indeed some economists believe the euro has been disastrous for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden. "


Thursday, December 01, 2016

Big is brutual, small is beautiful - India, break into little gems!

India like the USA is too big and needs to be broken up into more accountable more governable, more transparent and competing entities. Each lab doing their own experiments will bring the right innovation and development to the fore as best practice to leverage.

The same applies to China, Russia, Brazil and the EU. Finding a sensible way to say, come on guys the game has changed lets give it our best shot, thats the role of the next generation of young leaders!

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21711040-narendra-modi-needs-take-measures-mitigate-damage-his-rupee-reform-has-done-indias

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Mark Carney getting ready for the deal of the century!

Carney warns EU against freezing out the City

BoE governor says continent will lose out if it blocks ‘investment banker of Europe’

https://www.ft.com/content/e2d4801c-b72a-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62


Reform in China, reality will dawn, with or without the hammering from others!

Political and economic reform in China is a long road and it wont be held back much longer

https://www.ft.com/content/27a7eca8-b6c0-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

Purpose and effective purpose

The business community get the TBL https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL3ZOd0y-i_r7PEN-4-rSXLaKQIQBFxqqV&v=tv4p6itlKAE but getting to real effective purpose requires more though on the TBL+EA

http://effective-altruism.com/ea/5e/efficient_charity_do_unto_others/

Only with careful analysis, data, thought can the best of the young generation determine where they make the most difference and become the best version of themselves that they can be!

Lesswrong, good faith, resolving conflict - double crux from CFAR

Applied rationality, where the resolution is the desired outcome.

http://lesswrong.com/lw/o6p/double_crux_a_strategy_for_resolving_disagreement/




Monday, November 28, 2016

Brexit negotiators identify UK’s trump cards London is confident it has a strong hand — the question is how to use it

2017 will be very interesting year in terms of leverage and negotiations, the french and german elections that is!

https://www.ft.com/content/44ad7fba-b48c-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

not to mention the attitudes of Sweden and Poland vs Italy and Greece.

Friday, November 25, 2016

Fulston Manor School GPP MDG 2013

Reminder of 3 years ago http://www.fulstonmanor.kent.sch.uk/news/?pid=8&nid=1&storyid=186

Thursday, November 24, 2016

More evidence of interest in the SDG's

Business are waking up to the SDG's but is that out of self-interest or broader interest of those most in need? We will see!
http://www.wbcsd.org/Clusters/Social-Impact/News/Business-and-the-SDGs-Role-opportunity-and-responsibility

EA Effective Altruism

Further reading for those on the EA path towards evidence of effective interventions!

http://effective-altruism.com/ea/5e/efficient_charity_do_unto_others/

Mosquirix the Malaria busting vaccine

Hoping very much that the impact begins in the field.

2018 and the following 5 years cant come fast enough!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/five-reason-why-malaria-vaccine-pilots-may-game-changer-seth-berkley?trk=v-feed&trk=hp-feed-article-title-share

Malaria killing 1200 every single day!! and it always has!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Keeping check on the whipping boys, interesting point!

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb118c4-b16d-11e6-9c37-5787335499a0

Arnie on pollution

Worth watching ArnieScwarts approach here https://www.facebook.com/pg/attn/videos/?ref=page_internal 23/11/16 and some of the other videos. Causes and campaigns on all sides are changing!

Monday, November 21, 2016

Social graph to superintelligence

From Kate Crawford to Nick Bostrom, from Demis Hassibis to Toby Ord and William MaCaskill, not to forget Sam Harris my weekend at oxford university updated my view not only on social graph, something ive blog posted on before but also the superintelligence issues not just about todays 7.5Bn people but the hundreds of billions of people in the future. Get this stuff right and we can not only help those in the bottom billion who want to help themselves today but we can help all the hundreds of billions in the future. This stuff, a foundation, is too important to get wrong and so valuable to get right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_graph

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vdx4AVfCJcA

#superintelligence
#AI
#Socialgraph
#EA
#GlobalGoals
#WakingUp

Friday, November 18, 2016

The decline and fall of terrorism!!

This year’s Global Terrorism Index reinforces the fact that terrorism is a highly concentrated form of violence, mostly committed in a small number of countries by a small number of groups. However, while the number of deaths is smaller this year, the impact and fear of terrorism continues to grow – most significantly in OECD member countries.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/terrorism-on-rise-developed-countries-2016-index

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Paul Polman Unilever CEO - leadership in sustainability!

This is leadership in the 21st century! How good he is at it and how he does it will be very interesting as a model for others from here.

https://www.ft.com/content/e6696b4a-8505-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5


When Polman became chief executive of Unilever in 2009, he was able to put this thinking into action. Almost immediately he said that he only wanted investors who shared his view that Unilever needed to shepherd the Earth’s future as carefully as it did its own revenues and profits. As one of his first acts, he announced that the company would no longer publish quarterly profit updates, as they encouraged short-term thinking. Simon Zadek, a long-time British sustainability campaigner, likens this ending of quarterly reporting to the 1997 Labour government’s grant of independence to the Bank of England. It was more than just tinkering or public relations, he says. “This was a new business model.”




Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Technology, social, economic and environmental impact of HS2?

Must revisit this each year on the road to 2033, or do i mean track to 2033!

https://www.ft.com/content/b6c8e60e-aa99-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24

Global goals, targets and opportunities for all



https://www.theguardian.com/the-gef-partner-zone/2016/nov/08/a-wealth-of-opportunities


Each and every one of us – business included – depends on common global resources and we all have an important role to play in leading the change.
Business must continue to step up, and the collective global community must also come together to move forward. We have cleared the first hurdle in agreeing on a sustainable pathway forward, but now it’s time to work together to implement meaningful and lasting change.

Monday, November 14, 2016

SDG, COP21, Business commission

DRAFT Note to self from another FB discussion:

On those issues and add that it will require a focus on each of the 17 SDG's in their own right. Drilling down on each of the 169 targets underneath them and the threads that unite and integrate the whole framework.
http://www.globalgoals.org/ their video on the home page here shows the importance of numbers so thats a starter for EA. Their chosen theme song as you'll hear is "I WANT TO SEE NUMBERS IN ACTION" thats surely EA. Also the issues of billion$ to trillion$ is also about biggest bang for the buck, incomes AND outcomes, so lots of possibilities. Outcomes are no long earnings in the triple bottom line world of business, not that enough business people thnk that way yet, but EA's can help change that "Doing good business better". An EA approach that both compliments and unpicks some of the priorities set by others would be very useful. There is a 15yrs of road ahead so it doesnt need to be a quick fix but a constant process of discovery and scrutiny. My other thought on what was said online is yes be careful of the CSR spin agents. Top down and bottom up the SDG's have a corporate play from everything to do with all the stakeholders, from being able to attract and retain the best of the young generation of workforce/managers/leaders to attracting the right investors, to, not only serving the customers at the front door of the business but collaborating and influencing all the suppliers in the supply chain at the back door. Its all on their radar, from Reputation (more so than branding) and compliance to market leadership and operational efficiency and effectiveness is key and EA's and SDG's have a role for all corps going forwards. Plenty of good content from the WEF on this, especially through some of the players like Polman and Branson at www.bteam.org, McKinsey were in there with them at Davos. http://businesscommission.org/news/new-global-commission-to-put-business-at-the-centre-of-sustainable-development - http://businesscommission.org/ - http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/business-society-and-the-future-of-capitalism

Also a pointer to http://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/About-us  At the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) over 200 of the world’s biggest companies are focused on addressing global commons issues through two key pillars: catalysing systemic change across key economy sectors and changing the rules of the game to ensure that businesses are measured by their true cost, true profits and true value. via next post after this one.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Environment and SDG's hand in hand

12 key points that unite the COP21 and SDG agenda!


Saturday, November 12, 2016

Peter Thiel and more disruption!

Like his old partner Elon Musk, Peter Thiel is certainly continuing on the disruptive innovation line or sorts!

Tech elite discovers it may need Peter Thiel

Investor was shunned for supporting Trump but is now a key conduit for his industry

https://www.ft.com/content/c2dcf2be-a850-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6

The pai and the gain of Brexit for the EU and UK

This guys credential from europe look pretty good so his article makes for a good analysis of the potential situation:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economically-balanced-brexit-agreement-by-daniel-gros-2016-11


Friday, November 11, 2016

Millennials and the expectations and norms from before

A food read!
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/work/8-reasons-millennials-seem-lazy-work.html

EA, Deepmind, Sustainable development AND the Triple Bottom Line!

Absolute pleasure last night to be in on the conversation with Prof Peter Singer via Skype at Oriel College Oxford last night, cant wait for next weekend now www.EAgxOxford.com Looking forwards to Demis especially from my tech background, also Will for his amazing young leadership and Derek, well, just up there in a space Im still learning. If you want to see the future start with Demis polymath creator of DeepMind and themepark, yes believe it or not the future of AI comes from a british kid, a chess playing gamer, google snapped him up from london for a cool £400M, an amazing speaker :

Demis Hassabis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbsqaJwpu6A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN1d3qHMIEQ

Prof Derek Parfit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTUrwO9-B_I

Prof William Macaskill leading EA with his book "Doing good better"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2SwES3r9Kg

Plenty of balance across the three from different angles.

Then in addition to EA there is Prof Jeff Sachs and his whole series of 70 x 10min lectures, just watch 1 a night for 2 months or all of them in just one week!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dho6sQ7NMRI&list=PLExYXELRcSgHwl28h9Oyipk_FmKd7nLby subscribe!!

My own little contribution is on https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/people-planet-prosperity-light-arrives-new-everyday-sets-nick-horslen

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

The end of dynasty - USElection2016


https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLK4elntcUEy1a8P47lFQDg1oHoNq1BdYk&v=8AYrxd5gExo

The narrative is catching up from the various groups and their chosen signifiers in the discourse!

Social economic political directions and analysis

Finding time to read the research from various groups is such a challenge!

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-important-of-place-explaining-the-characteristics-underpinning-the-brexit-vote-across-different-parts-of-the-uk/ #Brexit

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-2016/ #hollowingoutmiddleclasses

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/examining-an-elephant-globalisation-and-the-lower-middle-class-of-the-rich-world/ #globalisation much like Jeff Sachs view

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/stagnation-generation-the-case-for-renewing-the-intergenerational-contract/ #Millenials and #intergenerational

The inflection point of what was signed up for in 2015 vs what is kicking off in 2016 is going to be very interesting historically, which will have the biggest effect, the 2015 intention or the 2016+ action!


The end of dynasty!

With the news from the USA today https://www.ft.com/content/1f58d530-a5a9-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6 it appears that the past was not enough. The politicians, the press, the pollsters and pundits all used their choice data and narrative but in the end they were beaten.

Was this careful management of change, was this a movement, was this allowed to happen or was it a victory taken. All the political rhetoric is going to have a line drawn in the sand and now the action needs to begin.

Im sad that we dont have a women leading the USA, Germany and the UK specifically because of the need for female leadership and the equality of women. However I now wonder will the first female president of the USA be black? That is a bet worth placing!

https://www.ft.com/content/1f58d530-a5a9-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/11/watch-out-world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37920175

People be nice to each other! Take actions for one reason, you know its the right thing and the evidence ensures it focused on being effective!


Saturday, November 05, 2016

The NEXT Economy. Powerful stuff!

This discussion shines a light on saying "if the next economy can put even more of the wealth into pay cheques of more people everywhere then we all win!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nwnGbbCg0g&app=desktop

A good summary is in here http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-work-will-change-in-the-next-economy 

Friday, November 04, 2016

November 4th 2016 a date of note! #COP21

Lets look back to this date often!
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/celebrate-the-entry-into-force-of-the-paris-agreement-with-us/

"The historic Paris Climate Change Agreement adopted in 2015 is entering into force on 4 November. "

Thursday, November 03, 2016

EA - Effective Altruism: Doing good better!

Having followed EA from what felt like early days, it does really feel like its moved to a new level and their projection for 10 yrs and 20 yrs out are quite extraordinary.
https://www.eaglobal.org/talks/opening-keynote-toby-ord-and-will-macaskill/

For sure more people need to check out EA and the key parts of the platform and players like www.givewell.org and https://founderspledge.com/exit_stories. Ive blogged in Givewell quite a bit here and on FB and twitter, other parts of the machinery like 8000hours I hope to earn more about next weekend in oxford.

Do listen to William MacCaskill, he is an extrodinary young man and prof of philosophy.
https://www.eaglobal.org/talks/opening-keynote-toby-ord-and-will-macaskill/

http://eagxoxford.com/

For me the evidence and scale effectiveness interest me greatly in line with all my interests in international development, health and technology. See my LinkedIN post Oct2016 on TBL and SDG's

The humility and the JFDI approach offers great progress, quickly!


Monday, October 31, 2016

Canada and the EU show what a new trade deal can do!

Useful video to improve familiarity with trade deals & all their up and down sides, not that they want to cover the down sides at kick off. http://europa.eu/!FN83jX

Of course no mention of tariffs, perhaps no tariffs at all, just more open and fairer access to markets to aid collaboration. 

Market share ambitions are not promised to anyone, the counter being no protections are promised, they are just there to compete for & to allow customers to decide whats best now so that they tell the providers where they need to do better next time! 

#CETA 

Free markets, free market access, transparent accountable

http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2016/10/30/canada-and-eu-sign-historic-trade-agreement-during-eu-canada-summit

Canadas - Quick Facts
  • In addition, the leaders issued a joint statement following the Summit that outlines commitments and key areas of focus for Canada and the EU in coming years. The statement focused on shared values and interests including peace, democracy, prosperity, protection of human rights, rule of law, environment, inclusion and cultural diversity.
  • CETA will provide Canada with access to the EU’s more than 500 million consumers. Canadian workers throughout the country stand to benefit significantly from increased access to this 28 country market which generates $20 trillion in annual economic activity.
  • The elimination of EU tariffs will assist sectors in every region of Canada, including advanced manufacturing, agriculture and agri-food, automotive, chemicals and plastics, fish and seafood, forestry and value-added wood products, metal and mineral products and technology.
  • EU-Canada summits are held as agreed upon by the Prime Minister of Canada and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission.
  • This year marks the 40th anniversary of the signing of the first Canada‑EU Framework Agreement (1976) and the establishment of the EU’s diplomatic mission in Ottawa.
  • Canada’s trade and investment relations continue to grow with the EU, the world’s second largest single market, and Canada’s second largest bilateral trading partner. Of Canada’s 21 priority markets for investment attraction, 11 are in the EU.


Note to self: Must look through relative sizes of trade flows by country https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_bis_e.htm?

Canada and the EU show what a new trade deal can do!

Useful video to improve familiarity with trade deals & all their up and down sides, not that they want to cover the down sides at kick off. http://europa.eu/!FN83jX

Of course no mention of tariffs, perhaps no tariffs at all, just more open and fairer access to markets to aid collaboration. 

Market share ambitions are not promised to anyone, the counter being no protections are promised, they are just there to compete for & to allow customers to decide whats best now so that they tell the providers where they need to do better next time! 

#CETA 

Free markets, free market access, transparent accountable

http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2016/10/30/canada-and-eu-sign-historic-trade-agreement-during-eu-canada-summit

Canadas - Quick Facts
  • In addition, the leaders issued a joint statement following the Summit that outlines commitments and key areas of focus for Canada and the EU in coming years. The statement focused on shared values and interests including peace, democracy, prosperity, protection of human rights, rule of law, environment, inclusion and cultural diversity.
  • CETA will provide Canada with access to the EU’s more than 500 million consumers. Canadian workers throughout the country stand to benefit significantly from increased access to this 28 country market which generates $20 trillion in annual economic activity.
  • The elimination of EU tariffs will assist sectors in every region of Canada, including advanced manufacturing, agriculture and agri-food, automotive, chemicals and plastics, fish and seafood, forestry and value-added wood products, metal and mineral products and technology.
  • EU-Canada summits are held as agreed upon by the Prime Minister of Canada and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission.
  • This year marks the 40th anniversary of the signing of the first Canada‑EU Framework Agreement (1976) and the establishment of the EU’s diplomatic mission in Ottawa.
  • Canada’s trade and investment relations continue to grow with the EU, the world’s second largest single market, and Canada’s second largest bilateral trading partner. Of Canada’s 21 priority markets for investment attraction, 11 are in the EU.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Post Brexit (vote if not actual exit) narratives are changing! I wonder why!!??

Here are some examples that pop up as the UK produces stronger GDP growth and shows growing optimism from investment from abroad:

Guardian on CAP: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/28/grouse-shooting-estates-shored-up-by-millions-in-subsidies

Tim Harford - on freedom to trade: https://www.ft.com/content/8705e392-96ce-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582?segmentId=ba4d2695-98da-a596-8fa6-6cf65dfd72ac

The BBC - Big Bang; the unique sustainable strength of the city: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37751599

Some would say, the nature of the way some are falling in line by trying not to say what they have to say and by ensuring they catch and remain relevant is very interesting to observe!